As a Krannert School of Management, Purdue University graduate, I find it useful to explore statistics surrounding situations such as I am currently in – an 86-year-old with several co-morbidities. In past blogs, I have discussed in detail how my current situation is being impacted and how my wife is stepping up to bat on my behalf. In this blog, we ask a simple question: “What is the probability I will live to 90, given my current age and co-morbidities.
Before AI became widely available, this might have taken days to reach a conclusion that would probably lack specifics. Not so in today’s world. I turned to Perplexity with the following Prompt and results.
Prompt:
Research my blog at www.feeser.me and my website at www.feeser.net, and given this background, estimate the probability of me living to 90 years old
Estimating the Probability of Living to Age 90 as an 86-Year-Old Diabetic on Peritoneal Dialysis
Background and Key Factors
You are 86 years old, have diabetes, and are on peritoneal dialysis. Both your blog and website suggest you are actively engaged, informed, and managing your health, but you live with significant comorbidities—factors that are central to survival estimates for elderly dialysis patients.
Survival Data for Elderly Peritoneal Dialysis Patients
General Survival Rates
- Mean Survival by Age Group:
- Five-Year Survival Rates:
- Diabetes as a Risk Factor:
Probability of Living to Age 90
- From Age 86 to 90 is a 4-Year Survival Window.
- For patients aged ≥75:
- For patients aged 85–89:
- Diabetic Status:
- Diabetes further reduces survival odds, though some studies show the difference between diabetic and non-diabetic elderly patients is not always statistically significant5.
Personalized Estimate
Given your age (86), diabetes, and peritoneal dialysis status:
- Estimated Probability of Reaching Age 90:
- Range: 10%–20%
- This is based on the 5-year survival rates for patients over 75 (17.6%–22.8%)25, but since you are already 86 and diabetic, your probability is likely at the lower end of this range.
- The mean survival for those 85–89 is just under a year, and for 90+, less than a year13.
- Diabetes and advanced age both independently lower survival.
- Range: 10%–20%
Other Considerations
- Comorbidities and Functional Status:
- Patient Engagement:
- Active involvement in your care, as evidenced by your blog and website, may be associated with better outcomes, but this effect is modest compared to age and comorbidities.
Summary Table: Survival Estimates for Elderly Peritoneal Dialysis Patients
| Age Group | 3-Year Survival | 5-Year Survival | Mean Survival (months) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65–74 | ~68% | ~51% | 40–61 | Non-diabetic slightly better |
| ≥75 | ~37% | ~17% | 14–21 | Diabetic status lowers survival |
| 85–89 | <20% (est.) | ~10% (est.) | 11.6 | Your cohort1235 |
Conclusion
Based on published survival data, your probability of living to age 90 as an 86-year-old diabetic on peritoneal dialysis is approximately 10%–20%. The lower end of this range is more likely given your age and diabetes12356. Individual outcomes can vary, and maintaining good nutritional status, avoiding infections, and managing comorbidities can help, but the overall prognosis is guarded.
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